The first round of the 2022 French presidential election will be held on April 10, 2022. If no candidate wins a majority in the first round, a runoff will be held on April 24, 2022 between the top two candidates. According to Article 7 of the French Constitution, the President is elected for a five-year term in a two-round election. If no candidate obtains an absolute majority in the first round, a second round is held two weeks later between the two candidates with the most votes.
The 2022 Russian invasion, which began on February 24, had significant consequences for the campaign. Macron's poll improved significantly during the crisis as the media began reporting the war. However, the Le Pen front may receive greater support compared to 2017, and it seems to have caught on in the latest polls. The results, which show that the far-right candidate Marine Le Pen has closed the gap with the incumbent President Macron before the presidential elections in the country, is shocking for the market and the Euro is in a damaged situation.
While Macron's victory in the April 24 runoff is still favored, Le Pen, leader of the far-right National Rally party, is gaining strength in the polls with her promises on a platform focused on curbing immigration and increasing law enforcement funding. French bonds fell sharply on Tuesday as a new survey emerged, sending the benchmark 10-year yield to its highest level since 2015, while the CAC 40 stock index fell almost 1.3% below the rest of Europe and continues to slide on Wednesday. he did.
Opinion poll for the 2022 French presidential election… Source: Conseil-constitutionnel.fr
One of the developments that may be important in terms of weighing the repercussions of the Russian crisis in Europe is in Central Europe. Parliamentary elections were held in Hungary on 3 April 2022, coinciding with a referendum, to elect the National Assembly. Hungary's incumbent prime minister, Viktor Orbán, claimed victory, and partial results showed the Fidesz party led the vote by a wide margin. With 54.01% of the popular vote, Fidesz received the highest share of any party since Hungary's return to democracy in 1989. It also received the highest number of votes won by any political party in Hungarian history. It was predicted that the election would be closer than in previous years.
It seems that Orbán's victory will lead to further conflicts between the Hungarian government and the institutions of the European Union, as the Orban administration has a stance in support of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. For this reason, countries such as Poland, which hesitated to invade Russia, can stand together with the EU more from this point on.
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