The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey will collect an annual 3% commission from banks' FX required reserves in case the Turkish lira deposit/participation fund ratios remain below 50% of the total deposits. The move aims to increase lira deposits and appears to be within the Central bank's 'liraization' strategy.
When we look at the sector data of the BRSA dated July 2022, it is seen that almost all banks are below the 50% threshold in terms of TRY deposit share. While the TRY deposit rate in public banks is closer to the line set at 49.4%, this rate appears to be 40.8% in private banks. In the sector, we calculate the TL deposit weight as 43.6%. Of course, these rates may have increased a little, especially with the FX-linked deposit conversions. In the Weekly Money and Bank Statistics of the Central Bank, we find the total weight of TRY deposits as 45.6% for the week of 19 August. This, of course, reveals that the sector is generally below 50% on TRY deposit basis. The fact that the TRY deposit weight of private banks is lower than that of public banks indicates that they will be more affected by this commission rule.
When we look at the current reserve requirement ratios of the Central Bank; It is seen that rates such as 25% can be reached in FX-denominated RRs. The new rules, published in the Official Gazette, bring an extra 5 points to banks that have not made a certain conversion from foreign currency accounts to TL accounts, and an extra 3 points RR rate to banks that have not made sufficient conversions. Therefore, if we calculate the effects of the extra RR application on annual net profitability for banks that have not made foreign exchange conversion and whose total TRY deposits are below 50%, with the addition of the 3% commission rule, there may be FX RR rates of 30-31%, thus 6%, appear to be subject to additional effects.
Kaynak Enver Erkan / Tera Yatırım
Hibya Haber Ajansı