According to the leading October foreign trade data announced by the Ministry of Commerce within the scope of GTS (general trade system); Compared to the same month of the previous year, exports increased by 20.2% to 20.81 billion USD, while imports increased by 13% to 22.27 billion USD in the same period. In this context, foreign trade deficit decreased by 39% in October and became 1.46 billion USD.

 

In October, the country we exported to the most was Germany, followed by the US, England and Iraq. In import items; China took the first place in October 2021, followed by Russia, Germany and the US. Looking at the goods groups, there is an increase in exports of raw materials (intermediate goods), investment (capital) and consumer goods compared to the previous year. On the import side, despite the 28.9% increase in the raw material category; investment goods decreased by 25.5% and consumption goods decreased by 20.3%.

 

With the support of the strengthening in foreign demand, exports continue to show a positive change. Looking at the rate of change throughout the year, the foreign trade deficit decreased on an annualized basis, together with the increase in exports, which was above the rate of increase in imports in the first 10 months. On the import side, despite the normalization of gold imports in the chapter composition last year, the effects of intense price pressure from energy and commodity prices are felt. Therefore, even though the one-time realization effect was eliminated, imports continued to increase due to the global price hikes and the rising energy and raw material bills in this context. According to the chapter data, the weight of the groups with high energy and raw material weight in imports is observed.

 

In terms of current balance; The decrease in the foreign trade deficit with the strong effect of the increase in exports, as well as the positive effect of tourism-based service revenues are observed. In this context, although we expect a decrease in the current account deficit on an annualized basis, we think that the current account balance may give a surplus periodically. We expect the current account deficit / GDP ratio to be 2.7% throughout the year.

 

Kaynak Tera Yatırım-Enver Erkan
Hibya Haber Ajansı