According to the November GTS (General trade system) foreign trade data announced by TURKSTAT in cooperation with the Ministry of Commerce; Turkey's exports increased by 33.7% to 21.51 billion USD in November 2021 compared to the same period of the previous year, while imports increased by 27.3% to 26.91 billion USD in the same period. Thus, the foreign trade deficit increased by 6.9% between November 2020 and November 2021 and became 5.40 billion USD. The ratio of exports to imports increased from 76.1% to 79.9% in the said period.

While Germany is the country we export to the most in November, it is followed by England, US and Iraq. Exports to 27 countries that make up the European Union increased by 28.2% and reached 8.56 billion USD, while the share of the EU in our total exports decreased from 41.5% to 39.8%. In import items; China took the first place in November 2021, followed by Russia, Germany and the US. While the share of intermediate goods (raw materials) in total imports increased in November, the share of capital and consumption goods decreased. While the share of exports of high-tech products in our total exports was 3.2%, the share of the same group's imports in our total imports was 11.3%.

According to STS (Special trade system), Turkey's exports increased by 33.1% to 20.37 billion USD in November 2021 compared to the same period of the previous year, while imports increased by 30.3% to 25.89 billion USD in the same period. has taken place. The ratio of exports to imports was 78.7% in the said period.

Foreign demand, together with the partial slowdown effect created by Covid variants and supply shortages, may cause a certain slowdown in momentum on the export side. In this context, we think that the periodic rate of increase can be reduced by the partial slowdown in our export markets. On an annual basis, the strong growth momentum continues. In November, some acceleration was observed in exports to both developed and developing economies. In December, on the other hand, we anticipate that the periodic effects will be more visible. The recovery effect in Turkey's trading partners will still be decisive in terms of export trends. In terms of the medium and long term, we will observe the effects of the feasibility studies within the scope of the new economic model, which includes the export-led growth strategy. In this context, we see value-added high technology production and market diversification as critical.

The increase in energy prices increases the general import bill and thus the foreign trade deficit. At this point, consumption-based imports tend to slow down, especially with the effects of exchange rates and macro-prudential regulations, and the elimination of last year's effect of gold imports has a reducing effect. In November, total imports of consumption goods decreased by 13.7% on an annual basis. While total energy imports increased by 152.8%, the increase in imports of intermediate goods excluding energy was 16.2%. As the Turkish lira depreciated much more rapidly in December, we expect this to increase the import bill for the last month of the year. At this point, while domestic consumption slows down in basic factors, compelling effects are observed in raw material and energy imports with inelastic demand. In this context, we think that the widening energy gap will reflect the segregation effect.

Kaynak: Tera Yatırım
Hibya Haber Ajansı