In December, industrial production in Turkey increased by 14.4% compared to the same month of the previous year, according to calendar adjusted data; Seasonally and calendar adjusted industrial production increased by 1.6% compared to the previous month. According to unadjusted data, industrial production increased by 14.3% compared to the same period of the previous year. Our forecast was for industrial production to increase by 11.5% on an annual basis and by 1.2% on a monthly basis in December, adjusted for data.
Industrial production data, which we observed to be in a strong trend, showed a continuity in line with the general recovery trend in December as well. In this context, the tight recovery after normalization, especially in annual adjusted data, continued until the end of the year. After the coronavirus pandemic, the index, which experienced consecutive declines on an annual basis in the March - May 2020 period, gained strength from the support of the industry in the pandemic year with the incentives from the monetary policy and fiscal policy, and continued in 2021 as the general situation normalization steps normalized the sectoral activities. Looking at the changes on a monthly basis, industrial production growth, which was above our expectations in December, confirmed the strong growth outlook.
When we look at the details; While mining and quarrying contracted by 3.4% on a monthly basis, it contracted by 1.5% on an annual basis. While an increase of 1.9% was observed in the manufacturing industry on a monthly basis, there was a growth of 16.2% on an annual basis. In the electricity, gas and steam group, an increase of 0.6% was observed on a monthly basis, while the annual growth was realized at the level of 6%. On a monthly basis, capital goods increased by 7.2%, durable consumer goods by 1.5%, energy by 0.7% and intermediate goods by 0.2%. Non-durable consumer goods, on the other hand, contracted by 0.2%. Looking at the annual changes in the related items; capital goods increased by 22%, durable consumer goods increased by 13.9%, intermediate goods increased by 13.3%, non-durable consumer goods increased by 11.6% and energy increased by 6.9%.
On the industrial production side, on a periodic basis, we expect a loss of momentum in January. Iran's cessation of gas supply and consequent electricity and gas cuts in the industry led to suppression of production. We take into account that we will see the effect of this in the January data. Due to supply problems, the upward trend in raw material prices continues.
With the incoming data, we can say that double-digit growth in 2021 has been confirmed. Our growth expectation for 2021 is 10.8%. In 2022, we will consider factors such as the developments in the exchange rate, the economic slowdown caused by the global supply shortage, and the problems that the Omicron variant may cause, especially in our export partners. We expect the growth to normalize towards the 4% band this year.
Kaynak: Tera Yatırım
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