In January, the current account balance in Turkey ran the biggest deficit since 2017 as high energy prices increased imports. The current account deficit, which was announced as $7.11 billion on a monthly basis, was close to the market expectation of $7.3 billion. In the monthly period, the current account deficit increased compared to the 1.78 billion USD deficit in January last year. On a 12-month basis, the current account deficit amounted to 20.2 billion dollars.
When we look at the most determining factors in the current account; The deficit in goods trade increased from $1.91 billion last year to $8.33 billion. Services posted a surplus of $1.63 billion, driven by the $1.5 billion increase in tourism revenue. While there is a more positive foreign trade deficit image due to the increase in the export contribution after the effects of the epidemic subsided and the negative effects of gold imports diminished, it is seen that the energy import image of January and February spoils the picture here. The effects of the harsh effects of geopolitical risks on the energy bill are reflected at the point of increasing the current account deficit, and these effects can be expected to be valid in the future depending on the course of oil prices. In the current account balance, we think that the negative energy-related picture in January will continue, as revealed by the leading foreign trade data of February, and will continue as of March due to the Russian crisis.
While net inflows originating from direct investments on the financing side were 516 million dollars in January, there was a net outflow of 766 million dollars on the portfolio side due to the deterioration in risk appetite. While net sales of stocks were 352 million dollars, net sales of debt instruments were 98 million dollars. Official reserves decreased by 942 million dollars due to the decrease in the ability to cover the high current account deficit with quality financing. Net errors and omissions or capital movements of unknown origin showed a monthly inflow of $245 million.
We think that the contribution of export and tourism revenues, which constitute the main lines of the recovery in the post-pandemic period and the improvement in the current account balance profile, will deteriorate in the coming months due to the current conditions. Although the depreciation in TRY has a decreasing effect on the consumption-based import volume and gold imports have decreased to below average levels after 2021, the rapid increase in oil prices due to the war situation will increase the energy bill, and we will observe the weighted effect of this in the period after March. When we examine together the final data of Turkstat and the leading data of the Ministry of Commerce for the months of January and February, it is seen that the foreign trade deficit was realized as 18.4 billion dollars in the 2-month period and the energy deficit was 15.2 billion dollars in the 2-month period. The high level of energy costs may require a serious revision in current account balance expectations solely due to this item. If the crisis is not resolved towards the summer months, the effect of decreasing incomes from tourism will also reduce the contribution to the services balance and will not help the current account balance to improve. In exports, foreign demand may be adversely affected not only by the effects of Russia, but also by European economies with a high potential to be affected by the crisis and the global slowdown, and the contribution from this may decrease significantly, especially in the post-2Q22 period.
In the perspective of monetary policy, the Central Bank determines a strategy to increase exports, increase the current account balance surplus and support growth. Therefore, while adopting the strategy of keeping interest rates low, the economy management follows a loose fiscal policy basis to support credit channels and increase the growth momentum. We do not expect any change in the interest rate meeting to be held on March 17. We think that this implemented policy should be subject to a serious evaluation process. Because we estimate that the 2022 current account surplus target, which the Central Bank relies on for price stability, will not be achieved in terms of the balances. When we look at it on an annual basis, the current account deficit/GDP ratio will most likely tend towards 2020 levels.
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