In January, industrial production in Turkey increased by 7.6% compared to the same month of the previous year, according to calendar adjusted data; Seasonally and calendar adjusted industrial production decreased by 2.4% compared to the previous month. According to unadjusted data, industrial production increased by 8.2% compared to the same period of the previous year.

While industrial production remained below expectations, periodic weakening in the context of energy cuts is seen to come to the fore. Tens of thousands of factories were forced to curb production in January, when a drop in natural gas imports from Iran caused power outages across the country. This effect at the end of January can be expected to be reflected in the following months due to the difficulties in global energy supply and costs. In particular, we will follow the balances created by the Russian crisis in terms of the production speed and costs of the industry.

When we look at the details; mining and quarrying increased by 11.2% on a monthly basis and by 8.3% on an annual basis. While the manufacturing industry contracted by 3.1% on a monthly basis, there was 7.7% growth on an annual basis. On the other hand, the electricity, gas and steam group contracted by 1.6% on a monthly basis, while the annual growth was 5.6%. On a monthly basis, capital goods decreased by 3.4%, durable consumption goods by 3.3%, non-durable consumption goods by 2.4%, intermediate goods by 1.8% and energy by 1.6%. Looking at the annual changes in the related items; capital goods increased by 8.7, non-durable consumer goods increased by 8.6%, intermediate goods by 7.2%, energy by 6.5% and durable consumption goods increased by 2.5%.

On the industrial production side, leading indicators, especially PMI, reveal that the positive position of manufacturing continues, but the growth momentum of January and February points to a slowdown. We think that together with the negative impact of the Russian crisis on the export orders side, the cooling in foreign demand will shift the production curve down. Therefore, before the first half of the year, there is a possibility that industrial production will contract on an annual basis. In terms of domestic demand, we follow the domestic price conditions. While the easing in financial conditions is aimed at supporting the growth curve, the compelling effects of inflation continue with the depreciation of the lira and the demand from the real wage effect. We expect global geopolitical developments and loose growth-oriented financial positioning to increase the pressures on the lira. Within the framework of increasing production costs, we will see the effects of the last war conditions, double-sided decrease in demand and inflation.

Together with the incoming data, we are positioning the risks regarding growth forecasts to the downside. While we maintain our 4% growth expectation for 2022, we see problems such as the effects of the last war conditions, the decrease in the contribution of domestic and foreign demand, input and energy problems to production as negativities.

Kaynak: Tera Yatırım
Hibya Haber Ajansı