While the statements from the peace talks in Turkey increased the hopes of the markets, there was a decrease in commodities such as oil. It is stated that Ukraine is close to an agreement not to join NATO and not to have foreign bases in the country. Sanctions against the Putin administration will remain uncertain for a while. The decrease in military activity around Kyiv is good news for the market.
Russia announced that it has ceased military activities near Kyiv and the city of Chernihiv. The Kyiv administration said that they want to see 8 countries, including Turkey, as guarantor countries, while the other countries are the US, England, France, Germany, Poland, Canada and Israel. The Ukraine camp is something like NATO's Article 5, which states that the international security treaty is an attack on any attack on one member, and "with an even more stringent activation mechanism" that triggers three-day consultations, "then countries must provide assistance."
The Russian delegation will convey Ukraine's demands to Putin. In the future, a potential path was opened for the first meeting between Putin and Zelensky. Constructive statements by the delegations after the talks are welcomed, however, since the parties still have very different ideas about the end of the war, no progress has been made yet that guarantees peace.
The most important of these is the status of the separatist regions. The Kyiv administration offered to negotiate the status of Crimea, which was seized by Russia in 2014 and has been occupied since then. Ukraine has offered Russia an agreement in which "the parties will resolve the problems with the city of Crimea and the city of Sevastopol through bilateral negotiations". It would be an important development for Russia to negotiate the issue of Crimea and to accept that Crimea is Russian territory. The status of Donbas is a separate issue and the main reason for the war. There is no Ukrainian central authority in the region where the Russian demographic is dense. For this reason, the issue of a temporary ceasefire would be a more realistic approach. In addition, the parties could not agree on a temporary ceasefire, which was the stated minimum goal of the Ukrainian side, nor on humanitarian corridors. Plus, even if military operations around Kyiv were to cease, the Russian advance had already stopped there, tactically speaking. NATO enlargement and the nuclear issue will continue to pose problems in the medium term.
It is necessary to see the progress of the negotiations in order for the optimism that emerged from the talks in Turkey to move towards a real peace phenomenon. If the two Presidents meet as the market desires, it will be positive in terms of softening the risk. The US camp, on the other hand, is still suspicious of Russia and does not find the ceasefire request credible. Oil has fallen below $100 for the first time since Russia invaded Ukraine. The process of influencing commodity prices will be related to the progress of the negotiation process or the risks arising from war. In pricing, we will see both the situation regarding the supply shortage and the reflection of the perception of aversion to risk.
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