According to the leading March foreign trade data announced by the Ministry of Commerce within the scope of GTS (general trade system); Compared to the same month of the previous year, exports increased by 19.8% to 22.71 billion USD, while imports increased by 31% to 30.95 billion USD in the same period. In this context, the foreign trade deficit increased by 76.7% in March and reached 8.24 billion USD.

 

While Germany was the country to which we exported the most in March, it was followed by the US, Italy and England. In import items; Russia took the first place in March 2022, followed by China, Germany and the US. Looking at the goods groups, raw materials (intermediate goods) and investment (capital) increased by double digits compared to the previous year, while consumption goods increased at a limited rate. On the import side, despite the 43.3% increase in the raw material category; investment goods decreased by 6.3%, while consumer goods decreased by 3.5%.

 

Rising energy prices due to the war in Ukraine also cause an increase in Turkey's foreign trade deficit. Energy imports increased by 5.1 billion dollars annually in absolute terms and became 8.4 billion dollars, thus making up the majority of the foreign trade deficit, which was 26.4 billion dollars in the first quarter of the year. The data in the first 3 months show that our total energy imports in this part of the year are 25 billion dollars. As a net energy importer, Turkey has suffered greatly from this year's 35% rise in Brent crude oil prices. We expect the increase in commodity prices to continue the upward pressure on raw material and energy imports.

 

In addition to the increase in energy costs, the depreciating lira may be responsible for the highest inflation rate of 61.1% in 20 years, as well as increasing imports and the current account deficit. The Turkish lira, which lost 44% in 2021, fell 9.6% against the dollar this year, making it the second-worst emerging market player after the Russian ruble. It is obvious that the increase in energy costs will continue the difficulties in this item. This situation also makes the projection of a lira stability that will be supported by the current account surplus within the scope of the export-oriented axis of the government and the Central Bank, to a point where it cannot be realized. Already in last month's policy statement, the Central bank removed all references to its current account surplus target for this year. While the rise in global commodity prices widened the foreign trade deficit, Russia's occupation of Ukraine derailed the hopes of recovery in foreign currency tourist arrivals from the two countries. This, in turn, increases the risk of a higher-than-anticipated deficit in the current account balance.

 

It can be expected that risks related to external demand will limit the growth contribution of exports and industrial activity. In March, supply problems related to the Ukraine crisis caused the manufacturing industry PMI to fall below the 50 threshold, pointing to a contraction at 49.4. In terms of the situation in developed countries and our main export destinations, we need to follow the factors caused by the Russian crisis more closely. The situation of the Euro Zone, which imports energy heavily from Russia like us and whose economy may face the risk of a serious slowdown due to the weakening of global supply, is of critical importance for our exports. Supply chains and energy supplies, which may worsen as the Russia and Ukraine crisis continues, could put significant pressure on foreign demand. At the same time, recession risks arising from the possibility that the monetary tightening of central banks such as the Fed and ECB against inflation may go too far will be on the agenda. In the new period, the effects of geopolitical developments and the movements of Central banks on the economic growth balances will be decisive. We consider that the current balances pose a downward risk in terms of Turkey's economic growth profile and an upward risk in terms of inflation profile.

Kaynak Tera Yatırım
Hibya Haber Ajansı