According to the exit polls in the second round of the French elections, by getting 58.2% of the votes, the winner of the election was Macron, whom the markets saw as the more reasonable candidate; Le Pen took 41.8%. Macron became the first President to be re-elected for a second term in twenty years. Le Pen admitted defeat minutes after the exit poll went live.
In the first round; The Republican candidate, Valérie Pécresse, received less than 5% of the vote; this was the worst result in the history of the party or its Gaullist predecessors. The mayor of Paris, Anne Hidalgo, received 1.75% of the vote, the worst result in the history of the Socialist Party (PS). Jean-Luc Mélenchon of left wing La France Insoumise (LFI) was third with 21.95% in the first round, and 1.2% behind second-placed Le Pen. The votes of these candidates mostly went to Macron in the second round. The votes of Zemmour, who represents the far right and is generally fed by low-income, anti-foreigners and anti-EU voters, formed the source of Le Pen's votes in the second round. Although France's two-round electoral system does not allow the extreme groups to win in this arithmetic and ensures the continuation of the system in harmony with the system, as we saw in 2017, the central tendencies are losing blood and just like in the UK or Germany, the centrist parties have the worst vote rates. straight back.
The marginal movements will not be much, as financial markets have already calculated the optimism that Macron will win. However, if Le Pen had come out of the polls (the race was closer than in 2017), it would have created a political earthquake for France and Europe. Although Le Pen threw the idea of the Frexit referendum aside, her program remained hostile to European integration, in stark contrast to Macron's. His election could have resulted in the decline of France's role in the EU and the biggest shift in the balance of power in the union since the UK left the bloc in 2016. Since Le Pen was not chosen, there will be no increase in France's market-based borrowing costs. Southern Europe is economically problematic for the Eurozone and the trigger of the 2011 debt crisis in the Trichet era in the ECB was due to the spillover effect there.
We will not see any market pessimism due to politics, thanks to the victory of Macron, who is at peace with the markets, ensures the continuation of the system and represents the elite and the pro-EU, and his relatively good election performance. This means we can turn to the main economic stories.
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