In the April real sector confidence index data announced by the Central Bank, while the positive trend above the threshold value on raw data basis continues, we see a moderate decline in activity to pre-pandemic levels on the basis of adjusted data. While RSCI increased by 1.2 points to 109.7 in April; The seasonally adjusted RSCI, on the other hand, decreased by 0.5 points to 107.7.
In this period, the manufacturing industry capacity utilization rate increased by 0.5 points to 77.8%; The seasonally adjusted CUR, on the other hand, was 78.1%.
When the diffusion indices of the survey questions that make up the index are analyzed, it is seen that the evaluations regarding the total order amount, fixed capital investment expenditure, general trend and current product stock in the last three months have affected the index upwards. Evaluations regarding the production volume in the next three months, the total order quantity, the total quantity in the next three months, employment in the next three months and the amount of export orders affected the index downwards.
When we look at the sub-items; Although the general scenario still points to a positive trend, we observe that some pessimism has come into play in the expectations of export orders and current orders. In this period, especially in the Euro Area, industrial trends may slow down a bit due to the rotation shown by both manufacturing and services PMI data. Uncertainties and difficulties in the supply of inputs due to the Ukraine-Russia war, and its pressure on global growth and the Eurozone economy, our main export market, may increase downside risks on domestic production and exports in the coming period. Turkey's manufacturing PMI data showed that the industry entered the contraction zone with a decline towards 49.4 in March. The contraction acceleration here may increase. In the current position, there has not been a sharp downward reflection on production and the positivity continues in terms of the course. With the data for April, it seems that a good start has been made for the 2Q22 period.
The uncertainty of the investment environment caused the Central Bank to differentiate its commercial loan growth perspective. Excluding out-of-scope groups such as SMEs and tradesmen loans, the inflation effect is feared through the orientation of business loans to specific factors such as stock funding and foreign exchange purchases. In this respect, we consider the overall perspective of the recent RR regulation to be to limit non-investment business loans.
Although the 1Q22 period was a period in which the global slowdown pressure due to the supply shortage experienced around the world came to the fore, the geopolitical risks created by the Russian war towards the end of the quarter will increase the slowdown in terms of input supply and production trends. In the 1Q22 period, we calculate that the GDP growth realized as 6.2% on an annual basis in the light of leading indicators and sectoral trends. In 2022, we expect the growth path to be negatively affected by domestic and foreign demand shocks. Factors such as the inflationary environment and its indirect pressure on production due to the decrease in purchasing ability, the negative effects of geopolitical risks on supply, and the global slowdown pressure may result in a lower 2022 growth than the previous forecasts. We think that the said uncertainties may also affect the investment trend, in this context, we have a 3.7% forecast for growth throughout the year.
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