While industrial production in Turkey increased by 8.9% in May compared to the same month of the previous year, according to calendar adjusted data; Seasonally and calendar adjusted industrial production increased by 0.5% compared to the previous month. According to unadjusted data, industrial production increased by 13.3% compared to the same period of the previous year.
In general, we can say that there are data that can be evaluated positively as it exceeds expectations and send a strong signal in terms of 2Q22 growth profile. On the other hand, despite the acceleration from 10.5% to 13.3% in the unadjusted data between April and May, there is a general loss of momentum in monthly and annual data when seasonal and calendar effects are excluded, compared to previous periods. It should be taken into account that the comparative data in the annual period corresponds to the period of May 2021 - May 2022 and that there was a serious seasonal loss effect with a full closure period of 19 days in the same month of the previous year.
When we look at the details; While mining and quarrying decreased by 3% on a monthly basis, it contracted by 5.7% on an annual basis. While an increase of 0.8% was observed in the manufacturing industry on a monthly basis, there was a growth of 10.7% on an annual basis. In the electricity, gas and steam group, there was a decrease of 0.3% on a monthly basis and an increase of 0.3% on an annual basis. While capital goods increased by 2.4%, intermediate goods by 0.7% and energy by 0.3% on a monthly basis; durable goods decreased by 1.4% and non-durable goods decreased by 0.7%. Looking at the annual changes in the related items; capital goods increased by 17%, non-durable consumer goods increased by 15.2%, intermediate goods increased by 4.8%, durable consumer goods increased by 3.1% and energy increased by 2.1%. Looking at the technology groups, it is seen that the advanced technology group stands out with its high performance. Calendar adjusted data show that the low technology group increased by 13.5%, the medium-low group increased by 1.5%, and the medium-high group increased by 11.1%. The increase in the high technology group was at a remarkable level of 45.6%.
As it is May data, it is necessary to evaluate the developments in the last 2 months in terms of general growth projections. In an environment where the world is in a general recession, it seems difficult to make a positive projection. Within the scope of geopolitical developments and sanctions, the disturbance that may occur especially in energy supply flows may adversely affect the production acceleration in the industry as of the autumn and winter periods. Higher-than-expected industrial production data paints a strong picture for the 2Q22 growth outlook. Although production in the manufacturing industry and high technology side displays a relatively resistant image, it will be difficult to ensure the sustainability of the said momentum in the negative demand environment and raw material shortages abroad.
Kaynak Tera Yatırım / Enver Erkan
Hibya Haber Ajansı
