US inflation increased by 0.1% in August from a month ago, and increased by 8.3% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations of -0.1% and 8.1%, respectively. On the core inflation side, which we refer to more in terms of sticky items, there are increases of 0.6% and 6.3% on a monthly and annual basis, above the expectations. In this respect, even though the headline CPI decreased, the increase in core inflation shows that price increases excluding volatile items are hotter than expected, and this stands out as a negative detail.

If we look at the sub-items; The increases in the housing, food and medical care indices were offset by the 10.6% decline in the gasoline index. While the gasoline index fell, the energy index fell 5%, but the electricity and natural gas indices increased. The food index continued to increase by 0.8%. Housing, medical care, household goods and operations, new vehicles, motor vehicle insurance and education indices were among the higher in the month. There were some indexes that fell in August, including airline fares, communications, and used cars and trucks. The energy index increased by 23.8% in the 12 months ended August, a smaller increase than the 32.9% increase in the period ending July. The food index rose 11.4% year-on-year, the biggest 12-month increase since the period ended in May 1979.

On the other hand, the increase in services items maintains its high momentum and still contributes to the general inflation rates despite the easing of goods inflation. Apart from this, supply chain uncertainties are still quite intense and global geopolitical developments seem to push these items. For this reason, it will be necessary to be cautious about easing in terms of goods inflation. This will cause the headline CPI to continue at difficult levels to cope with.

If we look at the Fed's point of view; Nothing has changed, and a 75 basis point rate hike seems to be coming on September 21. The important thing is that the Fed will increase interest rates at a lower rate in periods such as November and December, the waiting period and interest rates will be the last levels to be brought. The terminal ratio is likely to increase due to more than targeted inflation pressure and this will be the main disturbing factor.

Kaynak: Tera Yatırım-Enver Erkan
Hibya Haber Ajansı